Premiership Half-time/Full-time stats – Football Betting Strategies

A different view of stats

Cyril's Betting Advice
Cyril's Betting Advice

We’ve now reached a point in the current season where to all intents and purposes stats mean very little. Some teams have it all to play for, whilst others just have to go thru’ the motions, in the knowledge that they’ll still be in the same division next season. Games amongst these teams usually turn out to be tame affairs. The edge has gone from the game and the tackles are not as hard or as regular as you would expect. C’est la vie!

As the interest may be moving towards the next season’s games I intend to go backwards and check-out some stats from previous seasons which may have bearings to future seasons and should be of interest to everyone.
Initially I’m looking at the Half-time/Full-time stats. As is usual I’ll begin with looking at home teams and how they have fared over the last eleven seasons.(Excluding this season).

PREMIERSHIP.  Home/Home  Home/Draw  Home/Away  Totals.  

2010/2011        114         19          5       138
2009/2010        129         19          5       153
2008/2009        101         16          9       126
2007/2008        109         20         11       140
2006/2007        114         14          6       134
2005/2006        122         17          8       147
2004/2005         96         22          4       122
2003/2004        110         17          7       134
2002/2003        114         21          7       142
2001/2002        107         21          7       135
2000/2001        110         23          5       138
                -----      -----       ----     -----
                1226        209         74      1509

Apart from the odd hiccup, each column is within a fairly tight range. Hopefully, proving that these are the kind of figures that can be expected to prevail over the average season.
In reality, any side taking a HALFTIME lead will keep it on four occasions out of five. On the occasions when it doesn’t keep it’s lead it will only end in defeat once every five occasions. The big ask is, of course, being able to assess when these odd occasions are going to happen. Maybe a crystal ball job?
In general the home sides with the best records in the above stats, tend to be what are generally known as the Big Four.
These sides are currently considered to be Man.Utd, Man.City, Arsenal and Chelsea. Only occasionally will there be an interloper.

Next comes the set of stats which feature The Half-time Draw.

PREMIERSHIP.  Draw/Home  Draw/Draw  Draw/Away  Totals.

2010/2011         54         70         28       152
2009/2010         52         60         31       143
2008/2009         66         62         43       171
2007/2008         61         62         33       156
2006/2007         60         66         44       170
2005/2006         63         52         39       154
2004/2005         69         63         49       181
2003/2004         47         71         36       154
2002/2003         64         49         41       154
2001/2002         51         60         37       148   
2000/2001         61         57         34       152
                -----       ----       ----     -----
                 648        672        415      1735

Here again we have sets of figures which are pretty well within a reasonable range. As can be expected, there is the odd jump or fall over the period covered. The most “compact” is the first column. The surprising thing here is that the generally expected favoured result doesn’t work out as it should. Draw/Home is often proffered as a good betting medium, however these stats don’t agree with that advice.
The general conclusion here must be that a home team level at halftime will only lose one in four games. The trick is to find which teams are likeliest to succumb in this way.
The Draw/Away column is very much in-line with the general return of AWAY wins, approximately 24%.

The final set of stats in this mini series are below.

PREMIERSHIP.  Away/Home  Away/Draw  Away/Away  Totals.

2010/2011         11         22         57        90
2009/2010         12         17         55        84
2008/2009          7         19         58        84
2007/2008          6         18         60        84
2006/2007          8         18         50        76
2005/2006          7          8         64        79
2004/2005          8         25         45        78
2003/2004         10         20         60        90
2002/2003          9         20         55        84
2001/2002          7         20         70        97
2000/2001         13         21         56        90
                 ----       ----       ----      ----
                  98        208        630       936

Here again, returns are fairly tight, with the odd exception.
Here the away side that leads at half-time is likely to win on two of eveery three occasions. In fact it will only fail to at least draw one game in ten.
The 70  Away/Away return in 2001/2002 season is coincidental with a 30% return on away games for the whole season.
A Premiership record. This looks as if it will be broken this season  as it stands at 31.1% with 20 games left to play.

In general, the half-time score can only be regarded as a “pointer”. A little bit of study into current form and the Head-to-Head stats will often give a much sounder hint.
One thing that may bear looking into, is the increase in the number of goals being scored in the Premiership over the last couple of seasons. The effect on match outcomes is obvious but not whether there is an underlying on half-time situations.
Only time will tell.

The above stats cover 4180 matches. it will be interesting to see how the current season matches-up with them.


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