SECOND HALF GOALS

Cyril's Betting Advice
Cyril's Betting Advice

The basics of any football match revolve around two things. Time and goals. These two go hand in hand. In the normal order of things, most goals are scored in the second half of a match. However, I have not as of yet heard nor seen of a strategy that takes this into consideration. After much reading and delving into past results I found what I hope will be a useful pointer.

The normal way that results appear to run is if the Home side have a lead going into the second half of a game, they are likely to score again. However, when the Away team lead at half-time here is a difference of opinion regarding the possibility of further goals being scored.
Some “experts” expect the Home team to “pull their finger out” and try to redeem themselves, others back the Away team to batten-down the hatches and hold on to what they have in hand. Yet a third faction back the Away side to turn on the agony and go to town and turn the screw on the poor Home side.

My own view is “why worry who scores?” Just so long as someone does. I’ve checked out FOUR seasons results where the away side have been leading at half time. That’s a total of 1520 matches. From the games there where 363 occasions when the Away side led at the interval. I can here you say, “so what?” Well the way I see it, no matter what the half-time position is, both sides will try to score. Don’t forget, most teams can earn bonuses when their side scores. No matter what the result. So what’s the big deal? Well, if both teams are intent on scoring, chances are one of them will make a mistake of some kind and concede. This is what I’ve been checking on. The chances of their being another goal are very high. My records show that of the 363 games mentioned above, only 54 were goalless in the second-half. The problem that remains is, what kind of strategy can be used to good effect to take advantage of these hoped for goals?

The one that strikes me as ideal is…
You can go to the “next goal” market and LAY “NO NEXT GOAL”. The problem here is that the liability can at times be daunting. The obvious alternative is to back BOTH teams to score the next goal. This does give a larger leeway but there is of course the feint possibility that there won’t be any more goals scored. The possibilities of this happening it approximately 15%. Or three times in twenty games. However with a little delving into the stats this can virtually be obliterated. I say, “Virtually” because we cannot legislate for Sod’s Law.
I have only researched for the last four seasons. The stats are so similar that I’m sure there won’t be much, if any change, should I go further back. So far this season there have been 20 qualifying games, of which ONLY 3 have failed to bring home the bacon. In other words, or figures, only 15% have been losers. Bang on the mark for the last four seasons average. The salient figures for the past four seasons are as follows

Second Half goals Stats

  Qualifiers Winners Losers
2012/13 95 79 (83.16%) 16 (16.84%)
2011/12 93 80 (86.02%) 13 (13,98,%)
2010/11 90 78 (86.67%) 12 (13.33%)

As with any strategy you get out of it what you put in to it. I’m certain that there will be ways of improving the strike rate. Whether it is decided to back the Lay No Next Goal or the Back both of the antagonists to be Next Goal Scorer, I’m certain that a small but consistent profit will be made over any period of time.
The best way to decide on staking when backing both teams to score is to use an ARBS calculator. Haven’t got one? Just put the words Arb Calculator into your browser. You’ll have a choice.

Don’t forget. Bet only what you can afford to lose.

Has the habit got a hold on you? Get help. There’s plenty out there.
Bigdeal.org.uk
gambleaware.co.uk
Gamcare.org.uk
Gam-anon.org
gamblingcommission.gov.uk has plenty of useful links.

Bet sensibly.


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