Trading – betting strategies (part 5)

Trading at Betting Exchanges

Trading – betting strategies (part 5)

IN Trading 4 I looked at favourites when playing away.
I want to expand on that, somewhat and incorporate CORRECT SCORES and 0VER 2.5 goals.
This may not be trading in the true sense but the idea can be used to trade if or when, necessary.
I have been checking a few results from different leagues and where the favourite has been the away side some interesting scores stand out.
The score band, from 0-0 to 2-2. (9 scores) obliges in a little over 73 % of games.
All leagues return different totals for each score. However there are some scores which stand out from the others.
As an example, Spain’s La Liga has eleven scores within the 9 score spectrum. However 6 of these eleven games ended 2 -1.
Bundesliga 1 has yet to return a 0 – 0 or a 1.-0 score.
Using figures from any league will show a similar set of results. Just with different scorelines.
I’ve looked at what I think are the TEN most popular leagues ( for betting purposes) at present in play.
Some  are just getting into their stride, others are nearing their winter break or seasons end.

One thing has surprised me whilst I’ve been checking thru’ the stats. The number of jollies that get turned-over so easily. A home team @ 1.39 losing 3 – 6. This is not an unusual occurrence, apart from the scoreline. Form can be a very fickle thing.


                    MATCHES PLAYED    AWAY TEAM FAVOURITE      %
PREMIERSHIP               70                 22              31.42
SPANISH LA LIGA           60                 16              26.66
SERIE “A”                 60                 13              21.66
BUNDESLIGA 1              63                 16              25.39                        
FRANCE DIV 1              80                 18              22.50
BRAZILIERO               288                 33              11.45
DUTCH ERIDIVISION         72                 25              34.72   
IRISH PREMIERSHIP        163                 59              36.19
M.L.S.                   214                 15               7.00
SUPERETTEN SWEDEN        224                 47              20.98

These figures don’t really tell us anything that we don’t already know.  That each league is an entity  in itself. There aren’t any real pointers for us to rely on. All that we can garner from it is that the majority of leagues have a reasonable number of AWAY favourites. However whether they will be of any use to us remains to be seen.

ODDS-ON.
The number of odds-on favourites playing away also show quite a variance from league to league.
From 1299 matches assessed there were only 65 that started ODDS-ON. A mere 5%. Of these only 36 managed to win. 55% win-rate is hardly anything to shout about at these odds.

Where to look for something to bet on then?

How about CORRECT SCORES?

Each league has it’s own “good and bad” scores within the 9 score spread.(0-0 to 2-2).
Scores which might be expected are denoted with an “X”,

                    0–0  1–0  0-1  1–1  2–1  1–2  2–0  0–2  2-2.
Premiership          X    X         X         X         X    X
Spain.               X                        X    X    X
Serie A                   X    X         X    X
Bundesliga 1                        X    X    X    X         X
France 1.            X         X    X
Braziliero           X         X         X    X              X
Eredivision.         X         X              X              X
Irish Premiership.   X         X    X         X         X    X
M.L.S.               X         X    X         X    
Superetten (Sweden). X         X    X    X              X    X

These are the most successful scores in each league at the present time. As can be expected they may well change over time. Keeping a watchful eye on one or even more will undoubtedly pay dividends.
Multiple doubles for small stakes, at first, could well be a way forward.
As ever it will pay to check-out any previous “HEAD-TO-HEADS”. This small niche can hold a gold-mine of information which will be of use to any serious punter.

Another to benefit from these stats is to look at the UNDERS and OVERS possibilities.
From the games I’ve checked-out, 264 had an AWAY FAVOURITE. Of these 117 won. 44.3%.
151 of these games ended OVER 2.5 GOALS. 57.2%. However using my OVERS + INSURANCE these figures rise to 213. Giving an 80.7% success rate.

The individual league breakdown is as follows.

                   AWAY FAVS.   AWAY WINNERS   OVERS   OVERS+INS.
PREMIERSHIP           22            8           11         15
LA LIGA               16           12           11         12
SERIE “A”             13            4            5          8
BUNDESLIGA 1          16            5           10         14
FRANCE 1              18            7            8         14
BRAZILIERO            33            8           23         28   
ERIDIVISION           25            9           17         20
IRISH PREMIERSHIP     59           34           33         51
M.L.S.                15            7            7         11
SUPERETTEN            47           23           26         40  

These figures are certain to change as the season progresses. However I’m sure that the overall changes won’t change the percentages too much.
I also think that there is plenty of scope for those who enjoy trading.
These figures were compiled before Saturday 16th October. Looking at results for this weekend, trading would have been an ideal vehicle considering the number of teams that led and then gave  away their advantage and in some cases the whole three points.

As I always maintain. Keep to the middle of the league tables when choosing your games. There are
less surprises amongst these games .Probably because there  is a more balanced formline between these sides.

Don’t forget.. Your own input into these stats will give a real sense of satisfaction when you hit a winning wager.

Happy Betting.

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