There isn’t any easy way of forecasting
under/over, especially at the 2.5 point.
In the Premier league last season there
were 134 (35.3%) games with scores under
2.5 goals that were either a home win or
draw. There were 41 games (10.8%) which
ended 0 – 1 or 0 – 2.
Whether or not there is any relationship
between goalscoring and odds is debatable.
However I’ve been looking at the odds for HOME sides when the games
end UNDER 2.5 goals. A very diverse set of odds are there to see
ranging from 1.19 to 11.0.
In recent seasons goals have appeared to be more plentiful.
Consequently there have tended to be fewer UNDER 2.5.
Unfortunately I cannot, on the face of it, find any direct link
between odds and scores. With one exception. More about this later,
as it may prove useful to us.
There were 53 matches (30.28%) in which the HOME TEAM started
odds-on and the match ended UNDER 2.5 goals. There were a further
49 matches (28.9%) where the HOME TEAM STARTED at odds between
2.00 and 2.99. Finally there were 32 matches (18.28%) in which the
HOME TEAM started at odds of 3.00 or more. Of these 9 were between
3.00 and 3.99 and a further 9 between 4.00 and 4.99. Leaving 14
matches at 5.00 or higher. These figures aren’t outstanding by
any means. Add in the 41 games (23.42%) which were away wins of
0 – 1 and 0 – 2 to complete the picture. Hopefully they will give
a bit of food for thought.
The stats that interest me are those were the home side starts at
odds between 3.00 and 3.99. There were 28 games where the home side
started at odds between 3.00 and 3.99. Only nine of these were games
that ended under 2.5 goals. That’s just under 1 in every three games
or 32%. That means that there were 21 games that ended up OVER 2.5
goals. Not a large number of games to get excited about but something
to get our teeth into.
Three recent games where the home side were offered at 3.+ had
quotes for 0VER 2.5 of, 1.99, 2.14 and 2.08. Now it doesn’t take
a genius to realise that with odds of this size there is scope
for reasonable profit if handled correctly. Assuming that the
stats hold-up and there’s no reason why they shouldn’t. One of
the good points of going for the OVER 2.5 goals in these games
is it’s not unknown for their to be a quick, if not a couple of,
quick goals. This of courses will give an opportunity to LAY OVER 2.5
goals for almost next to nothing depending on how soon the
goal(s) go in. Allowing us to “GREEN-UP” for a very reasonable
profit.
As we all know, there is never a DEAD CERT result in any match.
There are just too many variables. However if we select out matches,
often by referring to recent form and HEAD to HEAD history we may
well miss out some of the games that do go UNDER 2.5.
As I mentioned in a previous article England have now risen to the
lofty heights of 3rd place in FIFA ratings. Italy who took care of
us in the quarter finals are still below us whilst Brazil, probable
favourites for 2014 are 13th. One place BELOW Greece. Surely it’s
about time FIFA employed an I.T. expert with a little knowledge of
football.
For those of you with enquiring minds. What part did/does the ACME
THUNDERER play in football? Answers next time.
