It is always nice thinking about a dark horse coming through the field at the World Cup and surprising everybody by taking the title. Is it likely to happen? The answer in terms of excitement sadly is no, and you can look back through the history of the World Cup to find confirmation of that as well. There have been 20 previous editions of the World Cup and only 8 different nations have gotten their hands on the title.
So with the elite in the world including Brazil, Germany, France and Spain, it is a really tough thing for anybody to come through the field and pull off a shock. It’s not even that, it’s uncommon for a major underdog to even get themselves into the final four at the tournament. 2002 really was a big exception there with both Turkey and South Korea going head-to-head in the third-place play-off. But commonly you only find the strong nations making their way through to the latter stages of the tournament and that’s natural and the bookmaker odds will reflect that.
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So how do you go about betting on a dark horse at the World Cup 2018? Is there any point in doing so? The answer to that is yes but it just requires are a bit of thinking outside the box and avoiding throwing money at big underdogs to go out and win the event. You will be better serve shopping around alternative markets to try and find value in dark horses producing something a little bit special at the tournament and adding that extra layer of excitement as well.
Group winners and to qualify
A couple of the markets are looking for backing a dark horse is in the first round of the group stage. This is where you can back a team who have a one in four chance of finishing top of their respective group, to deliver for you. Naturally, you are going to have less of a chance of pulling this off if you’re backing somebody like Serbia to beat Brazil to the top spot in Group E or South Korea to top Group F ahead of Germany.
You want to look in the groups where things are a little bit more competitive and the little more wide open. The two groups which jump out of all that is Group A which contains Russia, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Uruguay, and then there is Group H which contains Poland, Senegal, Columbia and Japan. If you look at Group A, there Uruguay are a great 11/10 odds-on price* (betting odds taken at 1:07 a.m. on May 26th, 2018) to win group ahead of the host nation Russia, and therefore Uruguay who are a dark horse in the tournament outright market, can actually be seen great value for you early on.
Because Russia been so poor several years now, it could be also a good opportunity to try and oppose them with the exciting Egypt who will be led by Liverpool’s Mo Salah, to even beat the host nation out into a qualifying spot. Egypt are 7/5 odds at bet365 to qualify* (betting odds taken at 1:07 a.m. on May 26th, 2018) from the group and that would be an example of a dark horse coming through and delivering something unexpected without touching the big overall outright winner of the World Cup market.
Group H is just so wide-open it’s a little hard to read actually. African representatives Senegal has a decent quality running through their squad and includes players from the English Premier League, while Colombia proved themselves very strong four years ago and then there is Poland with the scoring threat of Bayern Munich’s Robert Lewandowski. Columbia are actually the favourites to win group 8/5 odds with bet365* (betting odds taken at 1:07 a.m. on May 26th, 2018), but they looked pretty ropey through qualification and haven’t been carrying great form. The South Americans just don’t look as good as they were four years ago. So it could be worth opposing them with Poland who have been pretty consistent and solid over the last few years, to beat them to top spot at 15/8 odds* (betting odds taken at 1:07 a.m. on May 26th, 2018).
2018 World Cup Outright Winner Odds
Brazil 4/1, Germany 9/2, Spain 6/1, France 13/2, Argentina 9/1, Belgium 11/1, England 18/1, Portugal 25/1, Uruguay 33/1, Croatia 33/1, Colombia 40/1, Russia 40/1, Poland 50/1, Denmark 100/1, Mexico 100/1, Switzerland 100/1, bar 150/1* (betting odds taken at 4:25 p.m. on May 25, 2018)
Visit Bet365Outright winner dark horse
So you can see you find value on dark horses around the tournament without touching the outright winner market. With that having been said if you did want to go for an underdog in the main market then the way to do that would be going to the each-way option. You look at the outright winner market for the World Cup 2018 and naturally, at the top, you have Brazil, Germany, Spain, France and Argentina all under double figures. So big one of those doesn’t really qualify as being a dark horse.
For dark horse betting in the outright winner market, you are going to be looking at those nations with a bit of meat on the bone when it comes to planning each way odds. Here, for example, you can find England at 18/1 odds* (betting odds taken at 1:07 a.m. on May 26th, 2018), current reigning European champions Portugal at 25/1 odds * (betting odds taken at 1:07 a.m. on May 26th, 2018) and Uruguay who boast the superb attacking threat of Luis Suarez and Edinson Cavani along with a pretty rugged defence at 33/1 odds* (betting odds taken at 1:07 a.m. on May 26th, 2018). Really though the dark horse that will probably appeal to most punters will be Belgium whose price has been shortening since the end of the domestic season around Europe. The Red Devils are now 11/1 odds* (betting odds taken at 1:07 a.m. on May 26th, 2018) to get their hands on the title and that is because they boast world-class talents like Eden Hazard and Romelu Lukaku.
Team specials
You can find value in World Cup 2018 dark horses just by looking at team specials as well. Now one prime area in which to do this will be the stage of elimination. Let’s take England’s campaign for example. While there is the usual amount of over-hyped expectancy about how the Three Lions will do, realistically they aren’t going to win World Cup this year and once again that’s reflected in the odds at bookmakers have placed on them. But given the group stage draw that they have received, you would expect the Three Lions to be in the knockout stages of the tournament.
This is where you bust out your World Cup chart and try and figure out the most likely opponents going through the rounds. They will, of course, be a tight tussle with Belgium in the group stage and if you go with the bookmakers who have the Three Lions as second favourites to win the group, if they do end up as runners-up then it would be in all European tie against Poland in the round of 16. Whatever happens really though to England in terms of finishing place they will more likely than not going be facing either Poland, Senegal or Colombia in the first knockout round.
If you can push them past that, then that’s where things may well hit a brick wall for Gareth Southgate. If England were to win their group they would be on a collision course with Brazil in the quarter-finals, and if they get through in second place they will be on a collision course with Germany in the quarter-finals instead. So realistically even though England aren’t likely going to be winning the World Cup this year you can project them for a quarter-final stage of elimination at 11/4 odds with bet365* (betting odds taken at 1:07 a.m. on May 26th, 2018). Then obviously at your discretion if you fancy the English dark horses to make it further you would find even bigger prices.
Other World Cup Dark Horse Opens
There are a lot of different ways to oppose the favourites in World Cup 2018 betting markets. You may just have to look outside of the box and not just focus on the outright winner market. Maybe you fancy Luis Suarez to outscore his teamate Edison Cavani at the tournament. Suarez is second-favourite so the underdog. Maybe it’s Spain’s Diego Costa in the Golden Boot race. Maybe you fancy Croatia being a quarter finalist in the stage of elimination. Maybe you do fancy the large-odds on England reaching the final.
Summary and predictions
So seeing you don’t just have to back a dark horse in the outrighty winner market there are other ways to get behind teams to and individual players to pull out surprises throughout the course of the tournament. It’s best done before it gets down to the business end of things where only the stronger teams remain.
The dark horse selections that we can see in the tournament are Uruguay charting a course through to the quarter-finals, Croatia potentially beating Argentina to top spot in Group D and Senegal causing an upset in Group H by beating Columbia to qualification. As for the dark horse chances of England, our tip is a quarter-final exit.
