Correct Scores Betting – Goal Scoring – Cyril’s betting advice (part 13)

Betting on Goals

I wonder whether anyone is using stats in an attempt to conquer the various goal scoring (correct scores or over/under) betting markets. With the glut of stats available I’m sure there can be some hope of finding some very helpful pointers.

The first thing to consider MUST be recent form. Teams who have got their shooting boots on, usually stand out a mile. The same can be said for teams whose defence has more holes than a collander. For me these are the type of teams that I DON’T want to consider. Simply because games concerning them have a habit of getting out of the "normal" run of things. Sometimes the expected glut of goals happen but there are just as many times when they don’t appear.

A recent game in this category was Man United versus Sunderland. Surely Sunderland’s weak defence would capitulate against Tevez, Roo or whoever Fergie decided to put out. The not unexpected happened, and Sunderland just kept their men behind the ball. What should have been an expected 3 or 4 goal rout, ended with 1 goal in the 90th minute. I suppose what I’m trying to say is." don’t go for the obvious".
Check out recent goals per game averages. Say over the last 5 games. First, decide which teams you’re going to disregard. The BIG-HITTERS at the moment are Liverpool, Chelsea and Man. Utd.  STRING-BAG defences are West Brom and Blackburn. Forget these five sides and look at the remaining games. For the home sides record their goals for average in the last 5 games. For the away sides record their goals against averages for last 5 games. These figures will all contain decimal points. Crucial to remember.

How to use these figures? There will be a few ways to use these figures. You can try multiplying the home teams figure by the away teams figure. You’ll get a figure from around, 0.5 up to, possibly 5.0. This will give you a rough idea of how many goals to expect in the game. You must decide how these goals will be distributed between the two.sides to place correct scores bets
Of course there’ll be days when these "guesses" are well of course, but there’ll be good days too.

I don’t like picking out "instances" but these five games were played Saturday and Sunday. (Only qualifiers).
Stoke v Fulham,  forecast  0.84 goals   Result. 0 – 0.
City v Everton,  forecast  1.80 goals   Result . 0 – 1.
‘Boro v Arsenal, forecast  1.12 goals Result. 1 – 1.
Villa v Bolton, forecast  0.80 goals. Result 4 – 2.
Portsmouth v Newcastle, forecast 2.16 goals. Result 0 – 3.
The only game well out of range was Villa’s. 
This is not meant to be seen as any kind of system. More a way for assessing the possible number of goals likely in a game.  Then for correct scores betting of course, you have to decide how the goals will be distributed.   So, one problem solved (?) but another one ready made. Or you rather bet on over/under bets.
This is of course a very simple way of tackling the problem. More complicated methods of arriving at similar solutions are out there. The Poisson Distribution comes to mind but that will keep for another occasion.  
A word to the wise. Relating to my Matched Betting article. Blue Square and 888sport have been getting a litle lax of late and punters have found it necessary to get in  touch with Customer Service  to get their bonus bets. Be aware.