Over/Under 2.5 Goals – one more time

updatet data and stats for over successful betting

Cyril's Betting Advice
Cyril's Betting Advice

I make no apologies for returning to what I know is a well favoured part of football betting, GOAL SCORING. A favourite betting medium on the goal scoring front being the unders and over 2.5 goals. The present season is just a quarter way thru’ and one team has yet to feature in a match yielding more than TWO goals. Southampton being the culprits. This won’t last long, Said he, (crossing his fingers. Not an easy thing to do when typing).

The number of games ending as OVER 2.5 by the team being most prolific at the art of scoring had risen appreciably since 2008/09.
The last eight seasons ending thus

over 2.5 goals

Season team games over 2.5 %
2005/06 West Ham Utd 23 60.5%
2006/07 Man Utd 23 60.5%
2007/08 Aston Villa 22 59.5%
2008/09 Newcastle U 22 59.5%
2009/10 Chelsea 24 63.2%
2010/11 Blackpool 27 71.1%
2011/12 Bolton W 25 65.7%
2012/13 Wigan A 27 71.1%

As can be seen, it is not always the most successful clubs which top this particular table. Four of the “leaders” were RELEGATED the season they were “Successful”. Of the eight table toppers only Man u and Chelsea ended as Champions that season. Finding the ideal sides to back overs isn’t easy. The one tip I can give is research, then research some more. The more effort you put into it the better you will fair. Backing the top sides isn’t an easy passage to profit, especially when they play some of the lesser sides. Quite a few of the “also-rans” have a habit of successfully “parking the bus” when they meet up with the Hoi Polloi. Typical coupon busters.

Best matches for goal-scoring appears to be amongst teams of similar strength. A recent game which had GOALS written all over it was CLASSY ‘SPURS v slack defensive NEWCASTLE. Surely a feast of goals? The result is history. If you’d checked the recent form you’d realise Spurs had only scored more than one goal in a game just twice this season. Still any can be wise after the event. there were a couple of other results very similar to this the same week-end.

It may help if I split the above stats into HOME and AWAY tables. The two figures represent, first figure, HOME performance and the other one the AWAY returns. The teams are in no particular order. Only relevant teams have been included.

over 2.5 goals - Home vs Away Team Stats

Team 2005
/06
2006
/07
2007
/08
2008
/09
2009
/10
2010
/11
2011
/12
2012
/13
2013
/14
West Ham 13/10 08/08 09/08 09/07 13/10 12/12 ----- 11/08 2/2
Arsenal 11/06 13/07 07/12 07/12 11/12 06/14 10/13 10/06 3/3
Fulham 11/11 06/12 11/07 09/05 09/07 10/08 13/05 13/11 3/2
Man. City 10/07 04/09 09/07 12/09 10/09 10/09 12/08 08/08 4/4
Norwich ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 11/11 09/09 3/2
West Brom 10/08 ----- ----- 13/09 ----- 13/14 10/10 12/11 1/3
Chelsea 10/05 11/05 06/04 06/08 12/12 08/09 10/08 10/13 3/1
Sunderland 10/08 ----- 07/08 09/08 09/08 09/08 10/09 06/13 4/3
'Spurs 08/06 12/10 11/08 06/12 10/11 09/10 08/10 09/16 1/0
Man. Utd 08/14 10/13 10/08 08/06 11/09 09/12 10/09 11/10 2/4
Everton 08/05 10/04 09/04 10/07 09/11 09/07 07/06 10/10 2/3
Newcastle 07/09 10/07 09/13 10/10 ----- 13/08 10/11 13/11 2/5
Aston Villa 07/11 04/10 09/13 10/09 06/08 08/13 07/09 10/11 2/1
Liverpool 06/07 08/09 11/07 10/08 12/06 11/10 07/09 10/15 3/3
Swansea ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 06/09 12/07 5/0
Stoke ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 08/08 08/07 08/04 1/3
Southampton ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- 09/09 1/0
Hull City ----- ----- ----- 13/07 10/09 ----- ----- ----- 0/3

These figures could well give anyone nightmares when trying to make assessments. Teams seem to have seasons when they are involved in many OVERS games and then they suddenly revert to a load of UNDERS. Liverpool could be relied on the return more UNDERS than OVERS when playing away. However, two of the last three seasons have resulted in over half of their away games going OVER. Chelsea have a similar record with two of their last four seasons going OVERS. Stoke, however, in their three seasons back in the Premiership have an abysmal OVERS record. Going for UNDERS? Stoke are your team. This season so far, can’t really be too helpful. Man. City appear to be throwing caution to the wind and playing an open game. Swansea’s games look as if they are giving their fans value for money. ‘Spurs seem to be encouraging their opponents to play things tight, as they themselves are doing. Not very interesting for the fans tho’.

As with any strategy you must look at both historical and RECENT form. In the end, STATS will out.

Maybe you find also the last article dealing with over 2.5 goals “Overs Revisted” usefull, so have a look at it too.


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