The bet365 Cambridgeshire is not the most valuable race on Newmarket’s Saturday card – that would be the Juddmonte Cheveley Park Stakes – but it is the weekend’s big betting heat and an annual puzzle that gets no easier to solve as the years go by.
Punters have been trying to find the winners of the Autumn Double run on Newmarket’s Rowley Mile course (the second leg is the Cesarewitch) since well before off-course gambling was illegal. A sixpence double on the two winners could keep the average farm or factory worker in bread, dripping and ale well into the New Year. Providing, of course, that your local back-street bookie didn’t do a runner with his illicit takings!
That was in the days before satellite channels or even TV was common and big betting races in the calendar were still something on which everybody had a flutter, though you had to wait for the evening editions of the newspaper to find out if you’d won, or the radio if you were posh.
Cambridgeshire History and Trends
There has been horse racing on Newmarket Heath since before King Charles I lost his head in an argument with Oliver Cromwell. Charles II and his brother, the future James II, were regular attendees. Though, in those days, races were matches between aristocrats not handicappers partnered by professionals.
The Cambridgeshire was first run in 1839 and seven horses have won it twice. Bronze Angel, in 2012 and 2014, being the most recent.
- There has been no winner aged seven or older in the last 10 years and only one winner aged six, underlining the theory that this is now generally a race for unexposed handicappers.
- Ten of the last 12 winners had finished in the first five in their previous race so recent good form is also a positive with most winners having had a run in the preceding seven weeks.
- The effect of the draw have diminished in a race in which the field invariably races in groups of two or more. Two of the last four winners were drawn low but Bronze Angel was drawn 21 and 11 respectively for his two triumphs while Prince Of Johannes started from stall 31 when successful in 2011. The 2016 winner Spark Plug started from 28 and Dolphin Vista came out of stall 29 12 months ago so maybe the trend is witching towards those drawn on the stands’ side.
- No less than six of the 17 winners this century have been returned at single-figure odds, three of them as clear favourites but there have also been 40/1 and 50/1 winners in the last seven years
With the 35 runners spread across the Rowley Mile course, betting on the bet365 Cambridgeshire is not for the faint-hearted. Its’ going to be hard enough spotting your selection so cover your options.
ALFARRIS is currently joint favourite at 10/1 with 888sport but that’s because he has all the right credentials. He stays further, is in great form and Jim Crowley again prefers him to Hamdan Al Maktoum’s other runner Afaak, whom he beat at Goodwood. The Haggas runner should reverse York running with Pivoine on better terms with the drying ground at Newmarket another factor in his favour.
John Gosden’s Wissahickon (11/1 with Coral) and Godolphin’s Very Talented (a general 14/1) are other fancied runners with solid claims and Kenya (14/1 with 888sport) is bidding to complete the Irish/English Cambridgeshire double for Aidan O’Brien.
But at bigger odds it pay to have a saver on VIA SERENDIPITY, who has won over a mile at Sandown so should stay the extra furlong at Newmarket. Stuart Williams’ four-year-old has run well in big fields at Ascot this season and is weighted to reverse Chelmsford running in June with Seniority, who will start at much shorter odds. He beat a good yardstick in Shady McCoy at Ascot last month and looks overpriced at 33/1 with Betway.
bet365 Cambridgeshire Current Best Odds
Alfarris and Kynren 10/1, Wissahickon 11/1, Kenya, Danceteria and Very Talented 14/1, Pivoine, Stylehunter , Uae Prince and Sharja Bridge 16/1, Seniority 20/1, Afaak and Tricorn 25/1, Waarif, Abe Lincoln, Circus Couture, Mountain Hunter, Sabador , Third Time Lucky, Via Serendipity, Via Via and Zwayyan 33/1, Mordin, Raising Sand, Examiner, Bravery and What’s The Story 40/1, Restorer, Euro Nightmare and Ventura Knight 50/1, Mythical Madness, Mistiroc, King’s Gift, Masham Star and Sands Chorus 66/1
(Odds Correct at 10.00am September 28)
