The spine-tingling, nerve-jangling action of the Supreme Novices’ remains one of the most popular races of the entire Cheltenham Festival.
The curtain raiser to Cheltenham 2020 Festival will be underway at 13.30 on Tuesday, March 10th and it is, of course, Grade 1 action.
This is the first big feature of the Cheltenham Festival betting and there has been a hotly contested battle for supremacy in the market.
It is Asterion Forlonge who narrowly heads up the market ahead of Shishkin. At the 48 hour declaration, it was announced that Envoi Allen will be heading to the Ballymore on Wednesday instead, shaking the market up a bit.
Cheltenham Tuesday 13.30
Asterion Forlonge 3/1
Shishkin 11/4
Abacadabras 5/1
Fiddlerontherood 6/1
Chantry House 7/1
Captain Guinness 14/1
Edwardstone 16/1
Allart 20/1
Elixir D’Ainay 20/1
Sveti Pimpernel 33/1
Berkshire Royal 33/1
Maria De Paul 100/11
Heaven Help Us 100/1
Jabbaar 200/1
Whatsnottoknow 200/1
Hollow Sound 200/1
* (betting odds taken from Bet365 at 03:29 GMT on Monday, March 9th 2020)
Horse Racing Betting at Bet365
Table of Contents
Asterion Forlonge
Powerful winning form. That is what the Willie Mullins-trained Asterion Forlonge brings to the table for the 2020 Supreme Novices’. He is undefeated in his three runs for Mullins and he was so impressive on his hurdle debut.
Mullins’ Asterion Forlonge took a 10l win at Naas at the start of the year. That was in his first hurdle foray, dominating the field. He didn’t bat an eyelid on his Grade 1 trip at Leopardstown in early February either, claiming that Novice Hurdle victory by nine and a half lengths.
Asterion Forlonge was well clear at the last on the 2m trip and Mullins has won four of the last seven Supreme Novices’ renewals, including last year’s success with Klassical Dream.
Asterion Forlonge is a 3/1 option in 2020 Cheltenham Festival betting* (betting odds taken from Bet365 at 03:29 GMT on Monday, March 9th 2020).
Shishkin
The main challenger to Asterion Forlonge is Shiskin for trainer Nicky Henderson. Henderson claimed the 2016 Supreme Novices’ with Altior, the first success that he had taken in the fixture for a decade. Henderson has made some comparisons between Altior and Shishkin.
Shishkin has made big progress in 2020 having claimed back to back wins at Newbury and Huntington, without looking troubled. He’s a very exciting prospect and it will be interesting to see how he handles the head to head with Asterion Forlonge.
It’s hard to see just where the difference between these two front-runners is going to be. Both Shiksin and Asterion Forlonge have been relatively unopposed in their work in 2020.
Putting them on the same track at the same time, the pressure is going to be on for the first time. Shishkin is at 11/4 in Supreme Novices betting* (betting odds taken from Bet365 at 03:29 GMT on Monday, March 9th 2020).
Abacadabras
Gordon Elliot’s main hope in the 2020 Supreme Novices’ is Abacadabras. He has been at the head of the market in betting for the race but has gone on the drift a little bit.
His last showing was at Leopardstown when he took a victory at the back end of last year. So he has been held back and kept fresh for the trip to the Cheltenham Festival 2020 since then.
That success at Leopardstown was Abacadabras’ third win in his last four races, coming at the Grade 1 Paddy Power Future Champions Novice Hurdle. He did have a wobble on the way around, however, but reasserted himself in a field of four.
The well-exposed Abacadabras is a 5/1 shot* (betting odds taken from Bet365 at 03:29 GMT on Monday, March 9th 2020) for Tuesday’s action.
Key Facts – Supreme Novices 2020 Betting Tip
- Trainer Willie Mullins has won four of the last seven editions
- Since 2003 all but one of the winners was either 5 or 6 years old
- 18 of the last 20 winners have won at least a Grade 3
- 15 of the last 20 winners have contested a Class 1 Grade 1 race
- Just one winner since 2008 has been bigger than 12/1 odds
Fiddlerontheroof
Colin Tizzard has Fiddlerontheroof in action at the Supreme Novices’ after declaring Envoi Allen was taking a pass on this for the Ballymore. However, Fiddlerontheroof checks a lot of very significant boxes.
His last win has been over 2m and he has a couple of seasonal wins too. He has won his last two hurdles, both at Sandown, with the most recent being on January 4th. There has been some wonderful progression for the horse and his victory at the Grade 1 Tolworth earlier this year was highly impressive.
Tizzard will be looking to break his Supreme Novices’ duck and Fiddlerontheroof is at 6/1 odds* (betting odds taken from Bet365 at 03:29 GMT on Monday, March 9th 2020)
Chantry House
If you are looking back at the key trials for a pick in Supreme Novices betting, then we can say hello to Nicky Henderson’s Chantry House for his performance at the Betfair Exchange Novices’ Hurdle on February 8th at Newbury.
Chantry House came up with an impressive burst of speed to finish that one, a class 3 contest. A trend for a Supreme Novices’ winner is to look for a horse who has previously won at least a G3, so there he is.
Chantry House landed a success on hurdles debut in mid-December last year at Cheltenham after going off at 5/6 odds on in a field of eight, where he kept on well after getting to the front.
After his C&D at Cheltenham, his Newbury performance confirmed him for this and Chantry House brings sound appeal at 7/1 odds* (betting odds taken from Bet365 at 03:29 GMT on Monday, March 9th 2020).
Worth a look
Allart fell on his hurdles debut but has started to piece things together very well. He has claimed back to back wins at Ludlow and Doncaster since then and the six-year-old is starting to show a nice bit of potential.
Captain Guinness was found wanting a little bit at Punchestown at Grade 2 in early January. His stock had been raised after a 20/1 victory in a Navan maiden. He just didn’t have the stamina for trainer Henry de Bromhead at Punchestown.
Edwardstone is an interesting one who may be able to compete for the places. In a November Wincanton meeting, he claimed a debut hurdle win, beating Fiddlerontheroof. He followed up with a victory at Aintree before taking a second behind Stolen Silver at Haydock in mid-January.
Predictions & Tips
Here it is then. The big opener of the festival and we are going to get all boring about it and put our stock in Willie Mullins.
That, of course, means Asterion Forlonge who claimed the important Deloitte Novice Hurdle, one of the key trials for the Supreme Novices.
Last year’s winner Klassical Dream won the Deloitte last year before his Cheltenham success and Asterion Forlonge can follow suit. He’s therefore handled the Grade 1 company well enough and can hold off the challenges here.
Our pick for a place will be course and distance winner Chantry House. He has been coming along very nicely and was the other key trial winner in 2020.
The outside pick has to be Edwardstone because he has taken down Fiddlerontheroof before. He looked as if he needed that recent run out at Haydock to sharpen him up. Good each-way claims.
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