10 races down and 10 to go – the 2017 Formula 1 season is shaping for some gripping final grands prix. Sebastian Vettel leads Lewis Hamilton by just a single point in the Drivers Championship with Valteri Bottas not too far behind the front two. So, there is still everything to play for as we head into the last second half of the season and punters can hope to enjoy plenty of punting entertainment as a result.
If we had to sum up the season so far in one word then it would be ‘inconsistency’ and you can see that in the fact that we’ve had four different race winners in the 10 grands prix so far, with technical difficulties plaguing both Hamilton and Vettel’s performances in key races. We are sure that both drivers, their teams and their fans would rather these problems would desist for the remaining races but it sure does keep things interesting from a betting point of view.
So, what have we learnt so far from the betting on Formula 1 this season and how can we use that to inform how we wager going into the next races?
Hamilton and Vettel Neck-to-Neck
They are arguably two of the greatest racing drivers of the modern era of Formula 1 but this season has been the first time that we’ve seen Lewis Hamilton and Sebastian Vettel locked in a rivalry for the championship. And it’s made all the more interesting from the fact that the two are sitting in different cars with different engines and chassis set-ups – it hasn’t been so tight at the top with drivers from different teams since the 2012 championship when Vettel in the Red Bull beat Fernando Alonso’s Ferrari by three points.
The good thing for spectators is that these two racers can battle it out on the track without the hindrance of any in-team politics. In other words, they can be as aggressive as they want against each other without getting told off by their team directors and we’ve already seen a bit of fisticuffs between the two racers during a tense grand prix in Azerbeijan.
We are sure that this rivalry will continue to heat up as the season goes into the final few races but what does it mean for punters? Well, with Hamilton and Vettel going at each other for the championship, it’s important not to forget that there are other drivers out there who can win individual races, especially if the two end up getting in a bit of a tangle! Hamilton’s team mate Valtteri Bottas has already won two races this season while Red Bull driver Daniel Ricciardo took advantage of the spat between Hamilton and Vettel in Baku to win his first race of the season.
The next race in the calendar is the Hungarian Grand Prix and, unsurprisingly, Vettel and Hamilton are favourites with odds of 1/1 and 4/1 respectively. Bottas isn’t far behind them either with odds of 5/1. However it wouldn’t be completely unthinkable to take a bit of a punt on the likes of Max Verstappen, Daniel Ricciardo and Kimi Raikonnen who have some tasty odds of 14/1, 14/1 and 20/1 respectively.
Who Needs Pole Position?
One thing that has come as a surprise this season is that pole position hasn’t necessarily guaranteed the top spot on the podium. In fact, less than half of the 10 races have been won from pole position with six races in which the victor has won even though they started the grand prix further down the grid. So, this might be something worth taking into account if you are placing bets on race results after the qualification sessions have taken place.
An interesting statistic, however, is that the four races won from pole position were all won by Lewis Hamilton meaning that it could be worth sticking with the British racer to pull through on Sundays if he manages to clock the fastest lap on the Saturday of the race weekend.
Drivers Still in Contention
We might not be any closer to knowing who will be the winner of the 2017 Formula 1 Divers Championship, but we do know who isn’t going to win it. Of course, it is still mathematically possible for anyone to win it but it would need some miraculous results for someone who isn’t in a Mercedes or Ferrari car to catch up with the top drivers. This is reflected in the odds on offer at the online bookmakers with both Daniel Ricciardo and Kimi Raikonnen – currently fourth and fifth in the standings – on 1,500/1 to win it.
Punters might be tempted by taking a punt on Valteri Bottas to storm the last half of the season with odds of 16/1, which isn’t too bad when you consider that the Finnish driver is just 23 points behind Sebastian Vettel. However, with his Mercedes team mate in the equation we can see the Finn getting second preference when it comes down the engine spec.
Hamilton’s odds have been shortened from pre-season odds of 1/1 to 8/13 even though the Brit is still behind Vettel in the championship who now has odds of 2/1, slightly better than the pre-season odds of 6/4. With the two drivers so close in the standings, why have the odds swung even more in Hamilton’s favour? Well, if there’s one thing that we’ve learnt from the first 10 races it is that Mercedes simply have a better car than Ferrari – as everyone has come to expect over the past few seasons. That’s not to say that Ferrari haven’t improved but they still have a bit of catching up to do and a lot of praise has to be laid at the feet of Vettel for getting the most of his machine. Still, Formula 1 championships are won by the fastest cars and many punters will back Hamilton’s Mercedes to last the distance against his closest rival – that is if it doesn’t break down along the way!
It’s a Team Sport
While the stakes in the Drivers Championship reveal that there is still all to play for, it’s fair to say that the race is more or less won in the Constructors Championship. Mercedes are way out in front – by more than 50 points, in fact – and the bookies have them at very short odds of 1/9. Ferrari on the other hand can be found at 7/1 to make up the ground which, realistically, isn’t completely unachievable; a couple of first and second finishes on the podium for the two Ferrari drivers would see them swallow up the ground to Mercedes quicker than you think. However, the problem is that only Sebastian Vettel appears to be getting the most out of the car with Kimi Raikkonen failing to make much of a dent in the supremacy of the Mercedes duo.
Any Bets Worth Making?
We are certain that there are still plenty of twists and turns in store for the 2017 Formula 1 season. However, we don’t see much value in placing a bet on any of the outright markets, especially when the most likely driver to win it, Lewis, Hamilton is currently sitting at odds of less than evens despite being second in the current standings. Of course, these odds will change over the course of the next few races and a retirement for the British driver or a win for third place Valterri Bottas could make things very interesting from a betting point of view.
