With an efficient demolition job over old rival Rafael Nadal, Roger Federer looks well on track to lift the 2011 Barclays ATP World Tour title. We just can’t see anyone stopping him at the moment. We have lost Andy Murray from the tournament because of injury and in comes Janko Tipsarevic as a replacement in Group A. You would think that opens the door for Novak Djokovic to get through in top spot, and we turn our attention to him next in Day 4’s top match, Novak Djokovic v David Ferrer. This could ultimately be the battle for top spot, because Ferrer opened with a victory over the labouring Andy Murray. So if the tricky Spaniard can double up, he will be guaranteed a place in the semi final, alongside Roger Federer, the only other man confirmed for that stage at the moment.
So the stakes are high here in this match, because winning the group will mean avoiding the favourite Federer in the semi final stage. So huge incentive for both Djokovic and Ferrer. World Number One Novak Djokovic needed a third set tie break to get past Tomas Berdych in his first match. There were concerns over his levels of fitness coming into the tournament, and while he didn’t look at his very best, certainly not off the first serve, he still had just about enough in the tank to battle his way through to the victory. He will, without doubt, find Spaniard Ferrer a much tougher and less forgiving opposition than Berdych though, and this will be a test of his fitness.
Ferrer is a tough battler, and mixes up his shots very well to unsettle his opponents. Ferrer is more of a clay court specialist but is ranked 5th in the world and is the strongest outside bet to win all this. If he gets the better of Djokovic on Thursday, then he will be coasting and the strongest challenger to Federer. So let’s take a little look at the head to head for David Ferrer v Novak Djokovic betting. It is closer than you may think, with Serbian Djokovic edging it 6-4. The likelihood here, is if Djokovic isn’t 100%, then Ferrer will run him ragged all over the court for a tough battle. They have only met once before this season, and that was in the ATP World Tour Masters 1000 Madrid on Clay, when Djokovic won in three sets. Djokovic has won the last two meetings against Ferrer but this one could be a pretty close affair. Djokovic is favourite though to take the match at 7/20 at SportingBet, while Ferrer is back at 5/2 with Bet365. It could well be worth a little flutter on Ferrer here, because he should push Djokovic to the limits of his fitness.
In the day’s other match, we have Murray’s replacement Janko Tipsarevic facing off against Tomas Berdych. Would imagine that Berdych, although a little inconsistent in his first match will edge things as favourite at 8/15 with Ladbrokes, but Tipsarevic put together a great run of form towards the end of the regular season, pushing hard for a place at the Barclays ATP World Tour Finals. He just missed out on the top eight, but would seriously take a match punt on him here. For value would go with Tipsarevic on this one at 7/4 with Bet365, because he leads the head to head over Berdych 4-1.
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Barclays ATP World Tour Finals Outright Betting
Roger Federer: 8/11 at Totesport
Novak Djokovic: 5/2 at Bet365
Jo Wilfried Tsonga: 12/1 at Bet365
Rafel nadal: 16/1 at SkyBet
Tomas Berdych: 18/1 at SkyBet
David Ferrer: 25/1 at BetFred
Janko Tipsarevic: 125/1 at Totesport
