The Scottish National will get its annual renewal at Ayr on the weekend as the big field takes on the challenge of the 4 miles and 110 yards that hosts 27 fences. This is a staple of the Ayr Scottish Grand National Festival. After the excitement of its English counterpart just a week prior, it’s all eyes on this one north of the border. There have been instances of a horse winning both the English Grand National and the Scottish Grand National, and the only horse to have pulled it off in the same year was Red Rum in 1974.
The reigning champion is Vicente who is back for another crack at the Scottish national. He is back as the 10/1 joint-favourite with sponsors Coral* (betting odds taken at 7:30 p.m. on April 17th, 2018). Joining him at the head of the market is Vintage Clouds who was last seen out at Cheltenham. They were both pencilled in to take on the challenge of the Grand National last weekend, but both missed so they should be fresh.
Scottish Grand National Winner odds*
Vicente 10/1, Vintage Clouds 10/1, Doing Fine 12/1, Ballyoptic 12/1, Fagan 14/1, Sizing Tennessee 14/1, Daklondike 14/1, Folsom Blue 16/1, Henri Parry Morgan 20/1, Regal Flow 20/1, Beware The Bear 20/1, bar 25/1* (betting odds taken at 7:30 p.m. on April 17th, 2018)
Vicente
Having won the last two editions of the Scottish Grand National, it would be a shock if Vicente wasn’t positioned where he is in the market. He was scheduled to go in the Grand National last weekend but was pulled out because of testing ground after rain on Merseyside. Owned by Trevor Hemmings (who also own Vintage Clouds) Vicente has owned this race in the last two years. After a 66 day break, he turned up at the Cheltenham Festival in the Ultima Handicap Chase and was pulled up with four to go. His form isn’t great at all, but loves Ayr.
Vintage Clouds
Was one of the reserves for the Grand National last weekend, actually the only one of the four not to make it to post. Was beaten by Coo Star Sivola at Cheltenham in the Ultima Handicap Chase in his last outing and his last win was at Aintree back in October. He did go in the Scottish Grand National last year and despite a bit of a rally three from home, he clearly had nothing left in the tank and finished seventh. He goes as the same weight as last year. Put in a third-place finish at the Welsh National without ever looking like having enough to win it. A place option could be solid.
Doing Fine
With the ground drying out in Ayr the more favourable the chances of Doing Fine getting into the picture will be. He will be carrying a couple of pounds less than in his last outing where he came home fourth with Barry Geraghty taking the ride. That is something that should put him in the picture. Full of potential and experience and is a solid traveller at three and more miles, but in a stacked and evenly matched field. Can he stand out?
Ballyoptic
There should be a strong challenge coming in from this novice chaser who put in a decent enough run in the RSA Chase at Cheltenham recently, finishing fourth behind Presenting Percy. In the race prior to that, he took a win at Wetherby by just over two lengths from Vintage Clouds. Exciting but up there in the weights, five pounds more than when he took that Wetherby success. Has consistently been up in the top two in his races, and has been out for six months so should be fresh.
Fagan
Going for Gordon Elliott who has a big hand as you would expect, in the Scottish Grand National. However, this is going to be something totally new for Fagan who hasn’t been in a big field before. So there is that factor and whether or not he has the staying power to produce over the four miles.
Sizing Tennessee
Showed up really well in the National Hunt Chase at Cheltenham over the four miles this season despite losing a shoe along the way. This is a ballsy, fearless jumper who isn’t going to hold back at all and that gives him good appeal at 14/1 each way odds at Coral* (betting odds taken at 7:30 p.m. on April 17th, 2018). Can handle the distance, jumps well and is in decent form. That’s a lot of boxes checked.
Daklondike
Is a well-matured stayer who isn’t going to have problems holding himself together over the distance. He is carrying decent form as well with back to back wins at Wincanton and Newbury heading up to Ayr. The one question mark would be over the ground as this is a grinder of a horse who will dig it out in tough conditions as opposed to being fleet of foot on the firmer ground.
Folsom Blue
Folsom Blue was a fifth-place finisher in the Irish National so has shown stamina for Gordon Elliott. He has been more settled since moving over to the new yard as well and he won’t mind the distance. The question really is whether or not he has anything left in the tank after that Irish National challenge. Has potential to push close.
Outside Chances
Label Des Obeaux put in a decent run at the Sky Bet Chase for a sixth-place finish but goes a good four pounds lighter for this challenge. So that’s a big boost. Looked sluggish and out of rhythm at Kempton back at the end of February though. Has won before at Ayr in the 2017 Weatherbys Hamilton Novices. The Dutchman was going well at Aintree last week before unseating his rider and will have no problems with the distance, but it’s a quick turnaround.
Regal Flow is in great form heading to the Scottish Grand National including a win at the Midlands National. Is carrying ten pounds more though than for his Uttoxeter success. Has had a very strong season though and 20/1 each way odds* (betting odds taken at 7:30 p.m. on April 17th, 2018) won’t deter.
Predictions
It is always a bit of a minefield on the day and the quick ground will eliminate some of the stayers. It is going to be such an epic feat if Vicente makes it three in a row and for that reason we oppose with the exciting Sizing Tennessee who just fits nicely for the Ayr challenge. Ballyoptic has a good chance of being in the picture while our long-shot hopes rest on Regal Flow.
Scottish Grand National
Three horses have won the Scottish National on three separate occasions, Couvrefeu II, Southern Hero and most recently Queen’s Taste in the 1950’s. Only Couvrefeu II did it in consecutive years. Vicente landed the win last year at a whopping 11-10 in weight the biggest weight winner since Grey Abbey in 2004 carrying 11-12. Of the last thirteen editions of the Scottish Grand National, just three winners have been over 11 pounds.
There has been a mixed bag of results when it comes to age of winners recently. Since 2010 there have been three 9-year-old winners, two 11-year-old winners, two 7-year 0ld winners and one 8-year-old.
