The Sky Bet Chase is the big betting race at Doncaster this weekend and also the most valuable contest on the card, even though there are three Grade 2 events preceding it.
Sky Bet Chase History and Trends
The Sky Bet Chase, formerly known as the Great Yorkshire Chase, is Doncaster’s biggest race of the National Hunt season. First staged in 1948 and run over 3m, there has been a modern trend for stables to target this Listed handicap with up-and-coming young chasers.
Three of the last eight renewals have been abandoned due to frost but conditions look set fair for this Saturday’s meeting, though the going is likely to lean towards soft.
Only one of the last 12 winners has been aged 10 or older and there have been only five winners in that age bracket since the race was first run. The last four winners have carried under 11st but Ziga Boy won’t be bidding for a hat-trick of victories in the race after becoming the first to record back-to-back wins in 2017.
One significant trend in this Grand National trial is that none of the last 12 winners had won more than three times over fences previously. Only one winner in that time carried more than 11st 2lb and winning form over at least 3m seems to be an advantage.
It’s easy to see why L’Ami Serge has been well supported in the ante-post market. He is a high-class staying hurdler but it is a bit of a concern that the eight-year-old’s regular jockey Daryl Jacob has gone to Cheltenham and it’s more than two years since he last won over fences.
Long House Hall produced a career-best to land the Summer Plate at Market Rasen last July but hasn’t been seen since and the going will be against him. Wakanda likes soft ground and ran a cracker in the Rowland Meyrick at Wetherby over Christmas. He’s only nine but fully exposed in races like this. Vibrato Valtat was only beaten a neck by Mustmeetalady over the course and distance last time and is 2lb better off but his stamina will be tested on the going and Flying Angel didn’t appear to get home over 3m1f at Aintree.
Warriors Tale has done most of his racing over shorter distances but has won over 3m and wasn’t stopping when back to form at Newbury last time over an extended 2m6f. There is definitely some value in the 14/1 with William Hill about Paul Nicholls’ runner and Pilgrims Bay will probably travel strongly into the race again and makes some appeal for each-way purposes at the general 12/1.
Backing maidens in handicaps is usually the fast track to the poor house but THUMB STONE BLUES could be the exception that proves the rule. Trainer Kim Bailey is generally not one to tilt at windmills and the novice returns to the scene of a wide-margin victory on soft going over hurdles last year. He’s not been beaten far in any of his three runs over fences and stays 3m and further. Ciaran Gethings’ 3lb claim reduces a feather weight even further and he will come into the reckoning if conditions turn really testing – he can still be backed at 14/1 with Betfred.
Sky Bet Chase Current Best Odds
L’Ami Serge 3/1, Flying Angel and Wakanda 9/1, Long House Hall 10/1, Pilgrims Bay 12/1, Thumb Stone Blues, Vibrato Valtat and Warriors Tale 14/1, Label Des Obeaux, Mustmeetalady, and Tenor Nivernais 16/1, Coologue and Federici 20/1, Minella On Line 28/1
